Thursday, July 27, 2006

A cartoon that says it all...

A farmers' market in Tel Aviv

It may be a crisis, not a war, as Lise Ducette said yesterday, but for the small businesses which make travelling around the Galilee so wonderful, the "boutique" growers and producers of all kinds of foodstuffs, particularly fresh produce, the current situation is an economic disaster.
So on July 31, in one of the hangars at Tel Aviv port, there will be a food fair featuring the bounty of the land produced by these hard-hit agriculturalists. On sale will be cheeses, honey, preserves, olive oil, liqueurs, fruit, vegetables, top-grade meat - a genuine cornucopia from Israel's North at this improvised "farmers' market".

This evening the Chief of Staff and Defense Minister gave a joint press conference. Nothing new was said, but the determination was visible.

In the last few days 500 shelters in the north have been equipped with TV sets connected to cable TV, air conditioners and emergency lighting.

Today, Day 16 of the fighting, over 100 Katyusha rockets had been fired at Northern Israel by the evening. The same as yesterday. Fewer than a few days ago.

The question is: When will the Prime Minister address the nation?

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Not a war - a crisis

Lise Ducette, BBC correspondent
July 26, 2006

"This isn't a war - it's a crisis."
(comment when talking to an Israeli television channel)

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Topsy-turvy world...

More from Marsh of Kiryat Shmona
July 25, 2006

Dear Friends,
My thanks to the many, many people who have contacted me, on and off-list with words of support, and asked me to keep up sending my e-mails. This one may contain some random bits of this and that, although another side of Kiryat Shmona's strength was revealed today, this time for a happy occasion.
According to today's newspapers, Tsfat [Safed] has actually been struck more than we have (although that seems to be changing). Nevertheless, there seems to be more people on the streets there. I think several things account for the difference. First, we have known this sort of thing before. The accumulated experiences apparently don't make people stronger, but wear them out. Perhaps part of the difference is that here, we have been enveloped by smoke for several days, from the scrub and grass burning on the hills around us. Also, we have the constant noise of outgoing artillery barrages. Always annoying, the noise can be quite disruptive at times. As I write this, in fact, one particular battery is so loud, it feels like it's stationed right outside my window! Outsiders and the many volunteers here (more about them below) can't always distinguish between "incoming" and "outgoing", and jump pretty high from our loud artillery, then don't seem to move when Katyushas start falling, and we have to hustle them to safety.
In fact, and I hope no one gets insulted by this, one incident made me laugh last evening. After a full day of noise, both incoming and outgoing, there was finally a brief period of absolute silence around 8:30 p.m.. Whew, how nice to just hear nothing. That lovely, peaceful calm was shattered by loudspeakers mounted on a car, with a whole bunch of Nah Nah Bratslavians dancing and shouting at the top of their lungs: evidently their way of trying to cheer us up. I know they meant well, but .. I shouted out the window to pipe down, but of course, they couldn't hear me over the racket. Can't describe how nerve-wracking it was. Just as I was actually contemplating going down and trying to stop them, our artillery started to boom again. They evidently thought it was another barrage, or someone told them it was; they stopped in mid-beat and scooted out of here real fast. Ah, 'peace' returned, with only the occasional kettle drum in the background.
They were just one group of many good people who have been here, as individuals and in groups, to help us get through this period. (And many, many others who are organizing packages for us or for soldiers, for which we're very grateful.) Today, for example, the Hof HaCarmel Chavurat Zemer was here all day. They were wonderful, cheerful, friendly, and gave terrific performances in shelters. They themselves were so moved by their reception, some members had tears in their eyes. By the afternoon, having given four 40-minute concerts, their voices were beginning to give out. But they delayed their departure for a very special performance: a birthday party in the shelter for a 13-year-old.
Lidan Takiar was born into Katyushas - during Operation Din ve Heshbone, in 1993. Since then, two other birthdays were spent in the shelter. Last year, on the morning of her Bat Mitzvah, Katyushas fell, and very few friends came to her party. Now, again, she was due to spend another birthday in the shelter. But the soldier-teachers, who have been going into the shelters with activities for children, were determined to make this a real party. They got together several small gifts for her, and another neighborhood center offered us a bag of candies someone had donated. The entire Hof HaCarmel La'aka performed for her. Her family all came, (I discovered I know her grandmother and great-grandmother), some of her friends did show up, and a rousing good time was had. The soldier-teachers, though, weren't allowed to leave the shelter at the school: we'd gotten a warning to expect another barrage, and people were told to go into the shelters. (In those cases, all the young volunteers for whom we're responsible, and the soldier-teachers must stay in the shelters.) Sure enough, just as several people were leaving the party, Katyushas did start falling, although none fell on town.
At one point, one of Lidan's aunts, Pnina, got upset with a neighbor. The neighbor was complaining that no one had brought her anything, and she'd heard rumors that things were being delivered to people's homes for free. (On most mornings, we have something: dairy products, fruit, to give out to people in the shelters at breakfast time. This morning, we didn't receive any deliveries, but we had saved choco and cookies from yesterday, and that was sent out.) Pnina said, rightfully, that the supermarkets and grocery stores were open, and she [the neighbor] could go out and buy anything she needed. Yes, the situation was difficult, but it didn't mean that we were miskenim; it was people like the neighbor who were giving Kiryat Shmona a bad image. Pnina does her own shopping, when a "window" is announced, and it's only the old and disabled people, who really need it, who should have food and other things brought to them. Pnina went on for quite a while, very articulate and righteously angry. Understand that Pnina and her family are not well-off or well educated; I know her mother (Lidan's grandmother) because she was one of the cleaners at the community center. But, as I say, they were all there: 4 generations, on both sides of the family, were making the best of the situation, and ensuring that their daughter/niece/granddaughter would have a memorable 13th birthday party.
In my opinion, Pnina's mostly right. Too many people take advantage of the situation, and of the goodwill of others. Yes, it's very unpleasant, hot, uncomfortable and boring in the shelters or at home all day. But, pardon the expression, no one "dies of boredom". And Pnina's right about another point: it is the old people who need it.
Today, late in the afternoon, after the Russian-speaking volunteers had left, I got a call from a Russian woman, asking that we bring her a hot meal. In broken Hebrew, she was able to tell me that she couldn't go down, and asked someone to bring it to her. Since most of the people who usually make such deliveries were out, I took her the meal. Turns out that she's an old lady, living alone (except for a small dog - the neighbors walk it), who needs a walker to get around. She lives in a building with an elevator, but the brilliant architects who designed these buildings (like the one shown on TV yesterday, near where a shell fell) put the entrance a full flight of stairs up from the street. Thus, she hasn't been able to get out. Yesterday, she ran out of food. I later spoke to the social workers, to ensure that she would get regular deliveries of hot meals at lunchtime. I was also concerned that after the 'events', she'd get help. That's when I found out why things have been so difficult for so many elderly people during this period: many of them have aides, who come in two hours a day, and really make it possible for them to live more or less independently. Most of the aides can't come to work now: either they're obeying orders and staying in their own shelters, or have to take care of their own children. Without day camps and other structured summer activities, no mother can go to work and leave her children alone in the shelter.
Ironically, Pnina herself is one of these aides for the elderly -- I'm not making this up!
However, she works in one of the kibbutzim; she says if the people she worked with were here in town, she'd be glad to go to work everyday, and take care of them. But she can't get to the kibbutzim, nor leave her family in town when she's not here. Topsy turvy world, this.
I'm sorry if this e-mail turned into a long, possibly disjointed one. The experiences are so varied, the day kaleidoscopes into a haze of such short vignettes and incidences.
Also, several people have asked me if they can forward my e-mails to others. By all means! Once it's left my computer, as far as I'm concerned it's in the public domain.
Have a good and quiet night,
Marsh :-)

Israel - 15-year-old Druze girl killed by rocket when watching TV at home

Ynet, July 25, 2006
Efrat Weiss

Rocket claims life of 15-year-old Daa

Daa Abbas, 15, was sitting in her living room watching TV with her mother and brother when a rocket hit the house, claiming her life. Neighbors and villagers from the Israeli Druze village of Mrar remembered her as ‘a lovely girl who always loved helping out’

The Druze village of Mrar mourned the untimely passing of 15-year-old girl Daa Abbas, who was struck down by a Hizbullah rocket fired from south Lebanon Tuesday. A neighbor remembered the adolescent: “She was a lovely girl, and cute. She always loved helping out.”
At around 2:00 p.m. Tuesday, rockets pounded the Lower Galilee village which is populated mainly by Druze. One Katyusha hit the Abbas home while Daa sat watching television with her mother and 17-year-old brother. “The rocket came in through the living room ceiling, went straight through the floor and into the TV room, and hit Daa,” her uncle Ahmed Abbas said.
The uncle, who was first to reach the household to try to help the family, told Ynet: “I heard an alarm, then I heard a boom. I saw smoke coming out of my relatives’ house. Since I live so close, I ran there. Everything was full of dust, you could barely see anything. The mother didn’t stop screaming. An ambulance came and took them both to the hospital, but she had no chance.”
According to the uncle, his family members did not stand a chance against the rockets because there are no protected areas in their village in which to take cover. Ahmed Abbas added that many residents asked that a bomb shelter be arranged for them, but nothing was done in the matter.
Shortly after the rocket strike, neighbors and villagers gathered around the Abbas family home, and were aghast at the extent of the calamity. Neighbors who witnessed the damage to the house agreed on one thing: “We never believed such a thing could happen in Mrar.”

When will it stop?

When my husband David and I spent a month in the States in March 2003, we were swamped by the triumphant press coverage of the American invasion of Iraq. The overwhelming majority of the American population was in favor of the war: its stated goals, the way in which it was being conducted, and its apparent achievements.
Over three years later, none of this remains.
At the time, the (second) Intifada was still raging in Israel. The sickening round of suicide bombings was well underway and would continue for quite a while. The apparent ease with which the Americans were dealing with "their" Arabs had us slightly jealous, but we both had a nagging feeling - that somehow, this was "too good to last".
When I started this blog on July, I posted a comment by a journalist which reflected my vague feelings.
Now I post another piece, also reflective of my disquiet.
When did a conventional army ever overcome a guerilla army by the use of firepower, and particularly air power?
Seeing Ehud Olmert in a pair of white slacks and a blue (?) shirt climbing into the cockpit of an F-16 as part of a PR (exercise?) yesterday did not impress me.
Hearing the Chief of Staff say that for every civilian killed in Israel (?) he would flatten 10 high rise buildings in Southern Lebanon sent shivers down my spine.
Udi Lebel has written that what the Israeli population cannot stomach is losing its soldiers.
It has started.
When will it stop?

Haaretz,July 25, 2006
Firepower versus brainpower
By Yoel Marcus

Two weeks after Israel set out to defeat Hezbollah, its military achievements are pretty limited. A country that stood up to seven Arab nations in the War of Independence, a war of the "few against the many," with an army that pulverized the invading forces of three Arab nations in the span of six days, is now facing an embarrassing role reversal: a war of the "many against the few" in which Israel is on the floorboards. Who would have believed that a guerrilla organization with a few hundred regular fighters, something like a brigade and a half, could paralyze half a country, firing off hundreds of missiles every day? A total of 2,200 by Sunday morning, says the defense minister. Who would have believed that cities like Safed, Acre, Nahariya, Tiberias and especially Haifa, the capital of the North, would wake up every morning to the sound of sirens and deadly rocket fire that would turn tens of thousands of people into refugees and shut down life in a large part of the country? And that's even before Hezbollah has tried to use its long-range missiles on Tel Aviv. Who would have believed that the Israel Defense Forces, the army that is prepared for large-scale wars, that Iran fears will attack its nuclear facilities, that can drop 23 tons of bombs in a single night, is incapable of stopping Hezbollah's missile fire? How is that as soon as the IDF announces Hezbollah's TV station has been bombed, Hassan Nasrallah pops up in blooming health to continue his taunts against us?
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Israel went to war with the goal of wiping out Hezbollah, a hostile militia operating on its border, in response to provocation and the kidnapping of soldiers made possible by the sluggishness and routine that has become widespread in the IDF in recent months. It did so with international backing, with President Bush leading the pack, and the support of most Israeli citizens. Bush and the public assumed that the army knew what it was doing, and that Israel, with its superiority in manpower, weaponry and technology, would be able to put an end to Hezbollah as a menace to Israel. Little by little, however, a worrying picture has begun to emerge: Instead of an army that is small but smart, we are catching glimpses of an army that is big, rich and dumb. Take the bizarre appearances of IDF top brass on television: The commander of the Home Front, who stands there handing out high marks to the Israeli public, seemingly unaware that the moment people sense the army is not functioning, they will take to their heels - not only leaving their homes but fleeing the country, following tens of thousands of tourists who have already hightailed it out of here. The chief of staff, who had to say that "we're going to turn Lebanon back into what it was 20 years ago," and now threatens to blow up a 10-floor building for every missile. The district commander who declares: "We don't do body counts in the middle of a war," an improved version of the comment of Benny Gantz, who was a brigadier general in 2001: "When you chop down trees, splinters fly," totally forgetting that the splinters are human beings. We have a chief of staff who looks like he gets up every morning and agonizes over what to wear - his blue uniform or his khakis. A chief of staff who delivers state-of-the-union addresses that should be the job of the prime minister, and spends whole days touring with Channel 2 correspondent Ronny Daniel. In his observations to the media, Brigadier General (res.) Rafi Noy is right when he says that Hezbollah, with its hidden arsenals, continues to enjoy the upper hand, while the mighty IDF still has far to go to knock it out of commission. Unlike some of my colleagues, I believe that Israel is fighting a no-choice war that we must do everything possible to win. Air strikes, ground operations - whatever it takes so that Hezbollah, exhausted and beaten, pulls back and a multinational force is deployed along the international border together with the Lebanese Army, in keeping with Security Council Resolution 1559. If Hezbollah does not cooperate with a UN-mediated agreement stipulating that it give up its heavy weapons, and refuses to stay north of the Litani River, the IDF will have no choice but to keep up the attacks and pound away at Hezbollah, crushing it outpost by outpost. The rules of the game dictated by Hezbollah are going to have to change. A status quo ante is out of the question. The conflict with Hezbollah cannot be allowed to deteriorate into a war of attrition. It must not be expanded beyond its stated goals. And the Israeli public must not be overly put to the test, lest the "wonderful home front" blow up in the government's face.
The trouble is that we don't have all the time in the world. Condeleezza Rice is on her way. She will shuttle back and forth, back and forth, until the moment comes for a cease-fire agreement. We can only hope that the army reverts to its old self and has the wisdom and good sense to know what to do and when to do it, to produce the desired outcome.

Like finding the Arabian phoenix!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/5204192.stm
July 23, 2006

Rare Middle East bald ibis tagged

Three members of a bird species thought to be extinct in the Middle East until four years ago have been satellite tagged to aid conservation efforts.
Scientists will track the migration of the birds as they leave their breeding sites near Palmyra in south-east Syria.

The northern bald ibis was revered by the Egyptian Pharaohs and was once widespread across the Middle East, northern Africa and the European Alps.

There are now only 13 left in Syria and 100 breeding pairs in Morocco.

Three of the seven adults in Syria have been captured and tagged. Scientists from the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) and BirdLife Middle East hope to locate where the animals fly to for the winter and discover why so few birds come back.

They are expected to head south towards Saudi Arabia and Yemen, or even as far as Eritrea.

Without this tracking project, the bird would have been consigned to history and hieroglyphics

Ibrahim Khader
BirdLife Middle East

"We know next to nothing about where these birds go and this is our very last chance to keep the Syrian population alive," said Paul Buckley, head of global country programmes at the RSPB.
"If we can follow their migration and locate their winter home we should find out why their numbers are so low and how we can protect them. That is the first step towards increasing their numbers again."

Bedouin assistance

The northern bald ibis is classified as Critically Endangered by the IUCN-World Conservation Union.

It has declined rapidly due to habitat loss, human disturbance, hunting and pesticide poisoning.

There are now only two populations left - the handful in Syria and a small number in the Souss-Massa National Park near Agadir in Morocco.

Ibrahim Khader, head of BirdLife Middle East, said re-discovering the ibis was like finding the Arabian phoenix.

"Our survey and tagging work was some of the most challenging fieldwork we had ever done," he said.

"We knew they were in Palmyra because of reports from Bedouin nomads and local hunters. Without this tracking project, the bird would have been consigned to history and hieroglyphics."

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/5204192.stm

Published: 2006/07/24 00:10:54 GMT

© BBC MMVI

IPCRI - A Comprehensive Approach to the Current Crisis

IPCRI
מרכז ישראל/פלסטין למחקר ולמידע
مركز إسرائيل فلسطين للأبحاث و المعلومات
Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information

New IPCRI Policy Paper
A Comprehensive Approach to the Current Crisis
JULY 25, 2006

General Comprehensive Approach

It has been said that wars create opportunities for political changes. The current Middle East crisis should be used by decision makers to create opportunities to bring the region into a new era of regional and bilateral negotiations aimed at dealing with the Israeli-Arab conflict in a comprehensive fashion.

Some of the opportunities which could be created by the crisis include:

Greater will of all parties involved to replace the paradigm of violence with one of political dialogue and negotiations.
The implementation of UN Resolution 1559 and other relevant UN Resolutions.
Creating a peace process between Israel and Lebanon.
Creating a peace process between Israel and Syria.
Stabilizing a long-term Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire leading to the renewal of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
The utilization of international forces in various effective peacekeeping roles.
The integration of several of the regional actors in the international forces in various effective peace-keeping roles.

This paper outlines several new directions that seek to exploit and to materialize the opportunities created by the current crises. These opportunities include several bilateral tracks with specific steps that should be taken to resolve the current immediate crisis and to bring the region back to the peace track. The comprehensive approach of dealing with bilateral tracks in parallel enables the entire process to be concluded by addressing the root causes of the conflict. The comprehensive approach detailed below could lead to the development of peaceful relations between Israel and all of its neighbors in accordance with the vision of the Arab League Peace Initiative from March 2002. That initiative takes the most comprehensive approach which includes the end of the Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza, the establishment of an independent Palestinian State along the 1967 borders and a just and agreed upon solution to the Palestinian refugee problem. Together with the advancing of an Israeli-Lebanese Track and an Israeli-Syrian Track, the end result could be the establishment of peace and normalized relations with all of the countries of the Arab world.

The following describes in brief the measures that we believe must be taken in order to return the region to a political process.

Israeli-Lebanon Track

A ceasefire agreement will be reached supported by the international community. The Lebanese government will ensure immediately that signs of life of the two Israeli soldiers are transmitted to the Government of Israel. A mutual exchange of all prisoners will take place immediately after the ceasefire agreement comes into force.

Israel will withdraw all of its forces in Lebanon and an effective international peace-keeping force led by NATO and mandated by the Security Council will be sent to south Lebanon. The force will work with the Lebanese Army to strengthen it as it is deployed in southern Lebanon and along the Lebanon-Israel border. The Government of Lebanon will implement UN Resolution 1559. Hezbollah forces will be immediately removed from the south of Lebanon.

Israel will withdraw from the Shebaa farms which will be turned over to the United Nations until transferred either to Lebanon or Syria.

Israel and Lebanon will enter into bilateral peace negotiations assisted and/or supervised by France and/or others with the aim of reaching a full peace treaty including normalized relations between them addressing all outstanding issues. The peace treaty will be ratified by the United Nations Security Council. This process is part of the larger regional process involving bilateral negotiations on other tracks and will be considered within that framework.


The Israeli-Palestinian Track

The Palestinian captors of Israeli soldier in Gaza must immediately show a sign of life from him.

The Palestinian President and the Palestinian Prime Minister should announce an immediate ceasefire agreed to by all of the factions including all acts of aggression against Israel, especially the Qassam rockets from Gaza. The Government of Israel should respond by announcing an immediate Israeli ceasefire including all acts of aggression against the Palestinians, especially targeted killings and Israeli military incursions in Gaza and the West Bank.

The kidnapped soldier will be released in Gaza to one of the international representatives in Gaza. The Egyptians could probably fulfill this role.

Within one week after the release of the Israeli soldier held in Gaza, and as part of the framework of the ceasefire agreement, Israel will release all of the women and minors Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons.

One week later assuming the continuation of the ceasefire, Israel will release all of the Palestinian PLC members and Ministers from prison.

An Olmert-Abbas summit will be held immediately to begin the renewal of the political process that could focus on the ultimate coordination and cooperation of all future Israeli withdrawals from the West Bank and on outstanding issues concerning Gaza such as the passage between Gaza and the West Bank, the air and seaports, and internal Palestinian issues such as the unification of the Palestinian forces, the rule of law and order in the Palestinian territories.

Within six months of the Olmert-Abbas summit, Israel will release all of the Palestinian security-political prisoners in Israeli jails from before September 1993.

Within one year of the Olmert-Abbas summit, permanent status negotiations will ensue that will be completed within six months time leading to the establishment of an independent and viable Palestinian state and peaceful relations between the two states based on the Clinton parameters and the Arab League Peace Plan. This process is part of the larger regional process involving bilateral negotiations on other tracks and will be considered within that framework. The peace treaty will be ratified by the United Nations Security Council.


Israeli-Syrian Track

The United States will undertake to support a renewed track of negotiations between Israel and Syria following Syria's undertaking in respect of several steps that will demonstrate Syria’s willingness to change its current course. These steps will include the sealing of its borders with Iraq, the closing of the offices of Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Damascus, and the closing of the “pipeline” of transferring weapons to Hezbollah.

In agreement between the United States, Syria and Israel, the Israeli-Syrian track of negotiations will be immediately renewed.

The basis of the Israeli-Syrian track have been mostly agreed to in the past and it entails a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights. The territory of the Golan will be demilitarized forever with a ten year mandated international peacekeeping force in place.

Israel and Syria will sign a full peace treaty between them with full normalized relations. This process is part of the larger regional process involving bilateral negotiations on other tracks and will be considered within that framework. The peace treaty will be ratified by the United Nations Security Council.

The United States and the EU will provide significant funding for the economic development of Syria and the advancement of regional cooperation and economic development programs.

Concluding the comprehensive approach

The implementation of these steps in all three bilateral tracks would enable the conclusion of peace treaties and normalized relations between Israel and all of the countries of the Arab League.

Once the three trilateral tracks have reached peace treaties, the multilateral aspects of the Madrid process should re-resume with the convening of the original five multilateral working groups.



IPCRI
Gershon Baskin and Hanna Siniora – Co-CEOs
Khaled Duzdar and Yossi Ben Ari – Co-Directors, the Strategic Affairs Unit

P.O. BOX 9321
JERUSALEM 91092

Telephone: +972-2-676-9460
Fax: +972-2-676-8011
ipcri@ipcri.org
http://www.ipcri.org/


NOW IS THE TIME TO SUPPORT IPCRI’S EMERGENCY APPEAL

Shimon Peres on Hizbullah

Shimon Peres, Israeli Vice-Premier
From a speech at a special session of the Knesset
Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Hizbullah has been revealed as a body acting against Lebanon. They are there to mock the Lebanese government. They have humiliated their army and have made the Lebanese army useless. They have shaken the stability of Lebanon and now are destroying her economy. Hizbullah serves a foreign army and is financed, trained and armed by Iran. They are subject to their authority – an authority that intends to impose Iranian hegemony on the region instead of Arab unity. Hizbullah has been condemned by a majority of the countries in the world, and publicly for the first time, by the Arab states. They are an embarrassment to the religion in whose name they fight, transforming it from a faith into hatred, a murderous, revengeful hatred that violates human rights. Morally, the Hizbullah has already lost. They will also lose militarily.

So what do we do? Israel's dilemma....

From Marsha Brown, Kiryat Shmona
July 24, 2006

Just because I live here, under the gun, doesn't mean I'm 100% for the war, certainly not for the way it is being carried out. My problem is how do we stop neighbors intent on mayhem and distruction. People have a short memory: After we pulled out of Lebanon, 3 other soldiers were kidnapped. Evidently, Israel felt that a strong response would endanger their lives; eventually, we discovered that they'd been murdered almost immediately after being kidnapped. Katyushas were fired -- 2 people were killed in Kiryat Shmona. Border crossings were attempted, and others were injured. At what point does a country say "Stop! Our first duty as a nation is to protect our citizens", -- after all, it's the reason states were originally formed -- and actually do something? How many more weapons need to be stockpiled, and how many more soldiers and civilians must be killed? And after the first quagmire in Lebanon, how do we stop the cycle, without getting involved again? I agree -- this doesn't seem to be the right answer -- but what is? What could have been done?

I believe that since 1967, Kiryat Shmona has never had 5 continuous years of peace. So what do we do?

Take care,
Marsh

Wedding in a bomb shelter - Kiryat Shmona

Here comes the bride - in the bomb shelter
Mark Weiss, THE JERUSALEM POST
July 21, 2006

Ten months ago, Shlomi Buskila, 29, a native of Kiryat Shmona, was on his way to his nephew's wedding in the town when he stopped to speak to friends on a street corner. Maya Lugasi joined the group and took a look at Shlomi, and it was love at first sight.
They decided to get married. The wedding date was set for July 20 at the Tehila banquet hall and 800 guests were invited.
Then the war broke out.
The problem: Home Front Command instructions do not permit public gatherings in communities within range of Katyusha rockets. The solution: on Sunday, guests were informed of the new venue, the Matmid religious high school's bomb shelter.
Only a kilometer to the west of the school, just over the mountain ridge, is Lebanon. Throughout the day, the silence of a deserted Kiryat Shmona is pierced by deafening booms - usually the sound of Israeli artillery pieces, but sometimes the noise of incoming Katyushas exploding.
"This is the day we've been waiting for and I'm not going to let the terrorists destroy the happiest day of my life," said Shlomi. "We are getting married in the bomb shelter and later, when the situation calms down, we will reschedule the party." About 50 guests turned up, including 20 out-of-towners who decided to risk it.
Buskila's sister, Shula Dadosh, said the family sought advice from a rabbi.
"We could have postponed the event, but for Moroccan Jews it's bad luck to cancel a wedding once a date has been set," she said. "So we're going ahead and we're determined to make it a festive occasion."
The bride, 22-year-old Lugasi, appeared to be in shock as she walked down the steps toward the bomb shelter. It was not clear if this was a result of the deafening artillery booms every few minutes or from seeing more than 40 media representatives pushing and shoving for a good position.
The four poles of the blue huppa touched the ceiling of the bomb shelter.
Rabbi Nissim Malka, while conducting the unique ceremony, said a prayer for the safe return of all the soldiers and the safety of all Kiryat Shmona residents.
"Our first night as man and wife we'll have to spend in a bomb shelter instead of a hotel room," said Maya after the ceremony.
Flora Yerucham, a Kiryat Shmona resident who knows both families, expressed mixed emotions.
"On the one hand it's a sad day because a big event was planned. But on the other hand we are happy because the wedding is going ahead."
She added defiantly, "Hizbullah should learn that they cannot destroy our routine."

Monday, July 24, 2006

With great honour and courage

From Janet of Kibbutz Kfar Blum, after reading Marsh's description of the funeral of the soldier
Late on Sunday, July 23, 2006

Dear Marsha,
I can't tell you how I was moved by your account of the funeral of Liron Saadya z"l. As you know I am your neighbour 10 minutes away and we are all in the same boat when it comes to being petrified of the rockets landing on our homes but I know Kiryat Shemona always gets the brunt of the rockets, being a larger target and I really feel for its population (the ones that come to work or live in the kibbutz feel safer here but that is now an illusion).
I asked my husband how can they bury that poor soldier while rockets are falling all around. Well you gave me the answer - with great honour and courage. I stand in awe of you all.
I hope we all have a quiet night (I doubt it judging by the artillery guns going off right now) and that this ends soon (my son is being posted to the border tomorrow) with some kind of solution that is not just a bandaid.
If you need any help from me, please call me,
Janet

Smoke gets in your eyes - at a Kiryat Shmona funeral

More from Marsha in Kiryat Shmona:
Sunday, July 23, 2006

Dear friends,
I've been telling you about the little things here. Now that it's over, I can tell people about something else that just happened.
I just got back from a funeral. One of the soldiers killed in the battle for Maroun Ras, from the Egoz unit, was a young man from Kiryat Shmona, a really special kid named Liran Sa'adya, z"l. Only a month ago, he'd been given the "excellent officer" award. His commanding officers and his friends talked about his volunteerism, his modesty, his care and concern for others. Although it sounds like a cliche, and is said at almost every funeral, Liran truly was special. His parents are both teachers, and very well-known here. They were in Thailand when it happened, and only able to return yesterday, which is why the original reports said "At Least 2 Killed...".
For obvious reasons, the time of his funeral was not announced, as has been the case for every other fallen soldier. Instead, somehow, the word went out "me pe le ozen" by word of mouth, people calling each other to find out when it would be. When I got to the neighborhood center this morning, the word was that the funeral was set for 5 p.m., tentatively. The army wanted to make it later, evidently after sundown; the family didn't. We all thought the same thing: 'we're going to be there, and we're sure many others would be, too, but what if ...'.
Then, starting after 3:00 p.m., there was a fairly heavy barrage of Katyushot, which kept up intermittently until almost 4:00 p.m.; I sent out a short e-mail about it. (BTW, one house was directly hit. The family was there, but unhurt. Unfortunately, they're experienced in this -- their house was hit once before.) I called somebody "in the know", and was told that the funeral was postponed to 6:00 p.m. because of the situation.
Long before that time, the cemetery's parking lot was filled, and people were directed to park along the road leading up to the cemetery, which is about 3 km. north of town. Eventually, the line of parked cars on both sides of the road reached back to the first intersection into town. Despite the danger of gathering outside in large numbers, there were hundreds of people there -- Kiryat Shmona at its best.
The smoke of the nearby fires irritated eyes already red from weeping. One fire was in the field just across the road from the cemetery, another just below it. The prayers and amens were punctuated by booms from artillery in the area: if this were a scene in a film, you would say the director was "over the top". Sadly, it was real.
When the entire ceremony was over, an announcement was made, one I'm sure is not heard at other funerals. "The police request that people leave carefully -- but quickly." No one seemed to move. People waited, trying to get close enough to pay their respects, as in any funeral, regardless of noise, smoke, danger. Eventually, many realized that it was just impossible, the family was too deep in grief and there were too many people. Slowly, the hundreds of people made their way back down the hill. People waited while others turned their cars around on the narrow road: no honking, no shouting.
I don't quite know how to end this e-mail; one feels hollow. When they talk about the "home front" giving the soldiers strength, they don't usually mean Kiryat Shmona.
Nevertheless, along with the terrible grief and pain, there is strength here, and it was clearly seen today. I'm sure the many, many soldiers at the funeral drew strength from our presence, as we did from theirs.
Take care, and have a peaceful night.

A smoke-filled Kiryat Shmona - out of lemons?

From Marsha Brown in Kiryat Shmona
Sunday, July 23, 2006

You may have heard on the radio that close to 40 Katyushot fell in or around Kiryat Shmona. In fact, from what I can see from my eyrie, most of them fell outside of town, although several were nearby. There were a few which fell within the town limits; as far as I can see, they were in open areas. Some were near homes, and again, as far as I can tell, there was probably property damage, and perhaps someone injured from shrapnel or broken glass.... I hope it's not anything more serious. While I did see an ambulance head out from the Red Magen David to one of the neighborhoods, it didn't look like it was in a hysterical hurry.
Of course, visibility is very bad. The rockets that hit in open areas or near trees cause fires; many of the sites are on the hills above us, difficult to reach. To save the energy of the firefighters, who are responsible for a huge geographic area, no attempt is made to put out the fires that are not threatening. Several such fires were still burning when I came home this afternoon, at least one of which has been burning since yesterday. The only problem is that we get very strong winds here in the afternoons, and the town has filled with smoke. The last barrage lit a few more fires, adding to the smoke covering the town. In the few minutes it's taken me to write this, visibility has gone from poor to nonexistent, and the apartment has filled with smoke. You can imagine how uncomfortable it is in the shelters. Not all of the shelters have ventilators (fans).
Over the weekend, with the heavy barrage on Saturday, a number of people left. We were expecting a number of families to return, after being out of town for a week or more, but evidently, the barrage yesterday discouraged them from doing so. I encountered one older immigrant couple, who don't speak any Hebrew: their family left for Tel Aviv, leaving them alone here. While they had some needs which we were able to fulfill, their inability to communicate or understand anything means that minor problems become major ones, and everything becomes overwhelming, when under ordinary circumstances, they might be able to cope.
At my neighborhood center, we received more materna and similac this morning, and there was a "window" of several hours duration, when the stores were open. One woman called my center from another neighborhood: she'd gone shopping, but the supermarket was out of the diapers [nappies] of the size she needed. They might be getting in another delivery tomorrow or Tuesday. Her local grocery doesn't carry them, and her neighborhood center had run out of the size she needed. Luckily, we still had a few of the right size, and her husband picked them up.
The supermarket told all customers that they'd be getting another delivery tomorrow, but they don't know if that will include lemons, and they're all out right now. If the only thing we're missing is lemons, in my opinion, we're in good shape, all things considered.

Life as a dog owner up North...

Day 13 of the whatever-we're-calling-it....
From Janet Henig, Kibbutz Kfar Blum (July 24, 2006)

I went into your blog and saw what you wrote about Daisy.
I just had to show you the picture of our Golden (mixture)"Mayo" who is like my fourth child.
She as a pup was abandoned by someone in the city and we found her on our lawn, thin and scraggy.
She never leaves my side. The booms in this area terrify her and she didn't leave the house (even with me) for a week. I managed to take her for a walk on the Jordan promenade between Kfar Blum and Amir (when we weren't supposed to be outside) yesterday. But you have to get some exercise after being cooped up for almost 2 weeks.
I hope people adopt the poor pets left behind or come back soon to get them.

Marie Antoinette would have been proud...

From a friend up North:

We are all madly baking cakes which are then sent, brought to the various units in the area. The soldiers have plenty of food but need something freshly baked from "home"!!!!
Let's hope this ends SOON,
Must run,

Helping pets up north

There are many pets up north whose owners have fled the area, and need help. Fortunately, there is an organization which is helping in a variety of creative ways.
The organization's name is Noah, and its phone number is
03-9562873
They are trying to help, for example, with locating foster families in other parts of the country.
They also have an email address:
noah_il@walla.co.il
Donations can be made by credit card.
Daisy says:
Please help my four-legged friends!

A balanced view of the situation - Gershon Baskin

Gershon Baskin is the co-CEO of IPCRI – the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information.
http://www.ipcri.org/
His pieces are always a voice of reason and hope, although recently a note of despair can be discerned.
This is definitely worth reading, by so-called "hawks" and confused "liberals" alike...

Originally published in Jerusalem Times: Opinion

July 24, 2006

This week in Israel…..
Behind the news with Gershon Baskin

The scorecard

When I was a young boy growing up in the States I remember watching the evening news reports on casualties in Vietnam. I joined the anti-war movement when I was 10 years old in 1966. One of the reasons that brought me to drag my parents to an anti-war demonstration was the nonchalant way in which the newscasters read the evening scorecard of how many Vietcong and US soldiers were killed. It was as if there was nothing behind the numbers. There were no faces, no families, and no stories of suffering. Something was very wrong.

I have a similar feeling when I watch the news on all three Israeli news programs. While the Israeli channels do put faces and stories of suffering behind the dry figures on the Israeli side, the faces on the other side are almost completely absent. I know that that is the nature of war. Our society is drafted into the war effort and any sign of “identifying” with the enemy is viewed as treason. The best example of this is the tremendous anger that Arab Members of Knesset are receiving from their fellow politicians and from the media for raising serious questions about the legitimacy of the war.

I do believe that Israel has legitimate cause to bring about a significant change in the south of Lebanon. Israel was attacked without provocation by Hezbollah, soldiers were killed and others kidnapped. Over the past six years since the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon Hezbollah forces fortified their positions and deployed some 13,000 rockets aimed at Israel. So far some 2,200 of those rockets have fallen on the north of Israel. The UN Security Council [Resolution 1559] recognized that Israel withdrew to the international border, called the “blue line”, and demanded that the Government of Lebanon dismantle the Hezbollah forces, integrate them into the regular Lebanese army and deploy the army along the international border. All other factional militia in Lebanon were disbanded and merged into the army except Hezbollah. The creation of the anti-Syria coalition in Lebanon made up of the Sunnis, the Druze and the Christians which succeeded in pushing Syria out of Lebanon was not successful in forcing the Hezbollah to abide by UN Resolution 1559.

Hezbollah was greatly strengthened by the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon which they claimed as a victory for their resistance. Hezbollah stood for elections in the Lebanese parliament and won 14 seats of the 27 seats allocated to Shiites by the Constitution out of a total of 128 seats in the Parliament; the other Shiite-allocated seats are held by Amal – a more moderate Shiite party. Since the Israeli withdrawal, Hezbollah has focused its claims for resistance mainly on the issue of the Shebaa Farms. Wikpedia has the following information about this area:
Shebaa Farms is a disputed agricultural area consisting of a dozen or so abandoned farms located southwest of Shebaa, a Lebanese village on the northwestern slopes of Mount Hermon, at the junction of Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The area is about 14 kilometres (8.7 mi) in length and averages 2.5 kilometres (1.6 mi) in width, at altitudes of 150 to 1,880 meters (490–6,170 ft). This fertile and well-watered farm land produced barley, fruits and vegetables. There is controversy about whether the Shebaa Farms are part of Lebanon or the Golan Heights, a region claimed by both Israel and Syria. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chebaa_Farms
But the Shebaa farms has served primarily as a fig leaf for Hezbollah to continue to function as a state within a state supported and inspired by Iran and backed by its allies in Damascus. There are significant forces in Lebanon that would be very happy if Israel succeeds in removing or limiting the Hezbollah presence and strength in Lebanon. But there is no one there who can support the extent of the damage being done by Israel. More than 360 Lebanese have been killed so far, the majority of them civilians. The physical damage done is almost unfathomable. Most of the physical damage has little to do with the Hezbollah. The neighborhoods of south Beirut that have been totally destroyed by Israel are Shiite neighborhoods, but most of the people who lived there before it was destroyed were ordinary citizens. They may have voted for Hezbollah or ever supported Hezbollah, but most of them were just carrying out their lives, trying to make a living and supporting their families. Many of my friends in Lebanon – Christians and Muslims, have told me that it will take years and billions of dollars to repair the physical damage and decades to repair the mental damages. Even Lebanese citizens who were in favor of peace with Israel cannot imagine ever agreeing to welcome Israeli citizens to Lebanon.
Israelis are also angry
The more than 2,200 Hezbollah rockets that have fallen on Israel have also created a lot of physical damage and suffering. While the casualties figures are about 25 killed since the beginning of the war, some 500,000 Israelis have become refugees fleeing from the dangers of the rockets. Also in Lebanon, it is reported that some 700,000 Lebanese have been forced to flee their homes and many of them will not have homes remaining to return to. Now Chief of Staff Halutz has announced that for every rocket fired at Haifa, the IDF will demolish 10 high rise buildings in Lebanon. The media in Israel is very good at covering the stories of tragedies and suffering on the Israeli side. They bring in all of the “big guns” – retired generals and military experts – to explain to us “commoners” what the army is doing and what are the intentions of the politicians. Mostly they speak about their own “brilliant” military careers. They are referred to as being generals in the reserves – but none of them are still in active reserves. They are retired and their fame is their past, but we are subjected to listening to them replace army and government spokespeople who are less willing to face the public. Since the beginning of the war, only Israel Channel 10 has attempted to bring some “other” voices – people questioning the basic rationale of the war and its goals. The media clearly serves its part in the war effort and plays a big role in the psychological warfare. The Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, is a master of using the media in his own brand of pyschological warfare.
The Israeli peace camp has begun to take to the streets, but like at the beginning of the war in Lebanon in 1982, only a very small number of people have participated in the demonstrations against the war. On Saturday night, the second such demonstration was held with about 5,000 participants. The first petition against the war was published in today's Haaretz.
The news – electronic and written – has not reported on the efforts of the peace camp. Instead we are bombarded with the same pictures of the damage of Hezbollah rockets over and over again. It is amazing how many hours these news programs can repeat themselves saying nothing of significance, with such a lack of intellectual stimulation, I at least have more time to read.
The war in Gaza is not the war in Lebanon
The fighting in Gaza which has continued in full force has been pushed to the back burner. With all of the fighting in the north, the public and the media have almost forgotten about the war in Gaza. More than 300 Palestinians have been killed since the beginning of the fighting, about half of them armed combatants, who have shot more than 190 Qassam rockets into Israel. Israel continues to pound the north of Gaza with artillery while searching for Qassam launchers on the ground. The kidnapped soldier, Gilad Shalit, has still not been heard from although both the head of the Shin Bet and the Prime Minister have said that they believe that he is alive and well. In my own mediation efforts vis-à-vis the Hamas leadership in Gaza, I have also been told that he is alive and well. If that is the case, then, I have demanded that they produce a sign of life in order to begin to move a process forward that could lead to a cease fire and the release of Shalit and then a prisoner release by Israel. It appears to me that the leadership of Hamas in Gaza is under a great deal of pressure and that they would like to cooperate on finding a way out of the crisis. It seems that their hands are tied by the Hamas leadership in Damascus and that they have little or no influence on the kidnappers.
On Saturday night the Hamas announced a unilateral ceasefire, but the announcement did not come from the Prime Minister and was not announced by the Palestinian President either. Shortly after the announcement, some Hamas members and some members of other factions reported to be part of the cease fire agreement announced that no such agreement was reached. Yesterday, some 9 Qassam rockets were fired at Israel despite the announcement of the cease fire. Mediation efforts are underway by both private sources, such as IPCRI and by more official bodies, such as the Government of Egypt. In the last days there has been some coordination by the various attempts to mediate a cease fire arrangement. Hopefully, these will produce something positive.

Gershon Baskin is the Co-CEO of IPCRI – the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information. http://www.ipcri.org/


Gershon Baskin, Ph.D.Co-CEO, IPCRIISRAEL/PALESTINE CENTER FOR RESEARCH & INFORMATION
P.O. Box 9321, Jerusalem 91092Tel: 972-2-676-9460 Fax: 972-2-676-8011Mobile: 052-381-715gershon@ipcri.org
http://www.ipcri.org/http://www.place4peace.com/
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Sunday, July 23, 2006

A voice of sense from Jordan

On Sky News today, July 23, 2006
Prince Hassan of Jordan said that perhaps what is needed today is "not a war on terror but a struggle for regional peace."
Hear hear...

Meanwhile, at Haifa Zoo...

Haifa zoo locks up animals to stop them escaping
18 Jul 2006 14:20:02 GMT
Source: Reuters
HAIFA, Israel, July 18 (Reuters) - Staff at Israel's Haifa zoo have locked the lions and tigers in bomb proof cages to stop them escaping if there is a hit from a Hizbollah missile."If a rocket hits the open-air pen and one of the carnivores escapes into the city, it would not be a nice prospect," said head keeper Yoav Ratner. "Thankfully the night rooms are secure -- they are like bomb shelters."

"Commission of Inquiry into the 2006 war"

Haaretz, 23 July 2006
The war of 2006: Report of the commission of inquiry
By Ari Shavit
As will be recalled, the Barak Commission was established in September 2006, immediately after the retirement of Aharon Barak as president of the Supreme Court and immediately after the scale of the political-security blunder of 2006 became apparent. The commission's mandate was unlimited. The amount of work the commission had to do was immense. As is known, Aharon Barak's approach is that everything is investigatable. However, already at this early stage the commission feels the need to present main preliminary findings to the country's citizens. The members of the commission believe that because the situation on the northern border has not yet stabilized completely, the exposure of the conceptual and organizational flaws that brought us to this state of affairs is essential. At the outset, the commission wishes to praise the prime minister for the sangfroid he displayed during the confrontation in the north, the Israel Defense Forces for its ability to recover and achieve impressive results toward the end of the fighting and the Israeli public, whose staying power made it possible for Israel to cope with the challenge and vanquish the enemy. However, the commission finds that the damage the 2006 war caused Israel is deep and bears long-range, far-reaching implications. The fact that Israel emerged as a country that a small terrorist organization was capable of hitting significantly in conventional warfare is drawing the next conventional war very close, and it is liable to be far graver than the present one. The fact that Israel was revealed as a country that has no genuine response to steep-trajectory weapons renders such weapons a paramount strategic threat, which cast a dark shadow over the country's future. The fact that some 2 million Israelis lived in dread during the summer or were compelled to become voluntary refugees in their own country, has cracked the self-image and the external image of Israel as the safe haven of the Jewish people.
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In the summer of 2006, before crushing Hezbollah, Israel was humiliated. In the Middle East, the implication of humiliation is not just emotional but strategic. When the ocean is seething with sharks, the dolphin must not bleed or project weakness. In the past few months, the Hezbollah offensive led to the Israeli dolphin bleeding and projecting weakness. The bleeding and weakness will haunt us in the years ahead and tempt various sharks to attack us again and again. Therefore, despite the successful conclusion of the IDF operation in Lebanon, the commission has no choice but to state that the events of the past summer were indeed a blunder. Underlying the blunder of 1973 was the political conception of the status quo. The baseless belief that Israel's power allowed it to ignore its surroundings and shape its destiny as it wished. In contrast, underlying the blunder of 2006 was the political conception of unilateralism. The baseless belief that Israel's power enables it to ignore its surroundings and shape its destiny as it wishes. Seemingly, the blunder of 2006 was the opposite of the blunder of 1973, because it stemmed from a blind belief in withdrawal and not from a blind belief in occupation. In fact, though, the blunder of 2006 entailed an arrogance similar to that of 1973. This time, too, an exaggerated sense of strength led to the basic facts of the conflict being ignored. This time, too, political blindness induced Israel to take hasty steps whose implications were not weighed and whose consequences were not anticipated. The data that were presented to the commission prove unequivocally that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict contains a solid law of nature: Every Israeli withdrawal brings in its wake an outbreak of violence. This was the case in 1994, in 1996 and again in 2000. Accordingly, it should have been clear from the outset that the unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Gaza would bring in its wake an outbreak of war. In fact, there was a vicious circle here that was foreseeable: The unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon led to the Al-Aqsa Intifada, which led to the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, which led to the collapse of the arrangement that was forged in the wake of the unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon. The commission is not out to determine whether the disengagement was justified or not. That is a moral and ideological matter. However, the commission asserts unequivocally that whose who advocated the disengagement and led it should have been aware that it would lead to the renewal of hostilities on a broad scale. The fact that the country's leaders were not aware of the unavoidable consequence of the unilateral move they initiated, makes them the bearers of the overall responsibility for the blunder of the political-policy conception of 2006. The blunder of 1973 was also based on a mistaken military conception - the supercilious evaluation that Israel's air superiority and its advantage in the armored sphere accorded it the capability to crush any adversary and eradicate any threat within a short time and without any real difficulty. The blunder of 2006 was also based on a mistaken military conception - the supercilious evaluation that Israel's air superiority and its advantage in the sphere of precision weapons accord it the capability to crush any adversary and eradicate any threat within a short time and without any real difficulty. In the Yom Kippur War, the failure stemmed from not understanding that the SAM-2 and SAM-3 and Sagger missiles were striking at Israel's Achilles heel and largely neutralizing the sources of its might. In the war of 2006, the bewilderment stemmed from not understanding that the Katyushas, the Qassam rockets, the Al-Fajr rockets and the Zelzal missiles were striking at Israel's Achilles heel and bringing into being an alternative field of battle that largely neutralized the scope of its might. As in 1973, in 2006, too, the writing was on the wall. The potential threat was known but not internalized. Thus, following the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza it turned out that the defense establishment had not formulated a security doctrine that would provide an answer to the challenge of the Qassams. In contrast, the blue army developed a magical and dangerous belief in the omnipotence of the Air Force and in the marvels of precision weapons. As a result, a mistaken military strategy was created, based entirely on fighting from the air. The hope of achieving an elegant victory without human contact was a spurious hope that frivolously ignored the experience accumulated in Kosovo, Afghanistan and even in the Gulf War. In the commission's estimation, the deterrent failure after the disengagement stems in part from the mistaken military conception of 2006. This mistaken conception also involves the force structure of the IDF, which must be changed immediately before another and far more serious strategic surprise is inflicted on us. In 1973, there was an intelligence blunder. It was the same in 2006. True, intelligence had reported for years that Hezbollah possessed an offensive deployment of some 12,000 rockets. Intelligence also warned that Hezbollah was out to kidnap soldiers. However, intelligence did not expect a war in 2006. It did not warn the Israeli public about what was about to happen. Intelligence did not assess correctly the danger embodied in Hezbollah. It did not prepare the Navy for the missiles that were fired at its vessels. It did not report to the residents of the center of the country that they, too, were within range of Nasrallah's weapons. But above and beyond all this, intelligence did not succeed in penetrating Hezbollah to a point where the IDF could unleash its full strength against the organization. The tremendous advantage of the Israeli army in the sphere of firepower did not find expression against Hezbollah in the first stage of the campaign, because intelligence did not provide the Air Force or the precision artillery with a worthy number of precise and qualitative Hezbollah targets. In the absence of such targets, the IDF was like a giant trying vainly to squash a mosquito. The upshot was that the political echelon found itself in a bind. It did not have a political mandate to do what the IDF knew how to do - smash Lebanon to smithereens - whereas it did have a mandate to do what the IDF did not know how to do: to vanquish Hezbollah utterly. The multidimensional failure of intelligence vis-a-vis Hezbollah must be added to its failures in regard to Libya and Iraq, and necessitates a comprehensive overhaul of the Israeli intelligence community. The blunder of 1973 began in August 1970, when Israel, worn down by the War of Attrition, showed restraint when Egypt moved up its antiaircraft missiles toward the Suez Canal, contrary to the cease-fire terms. There is no doubt that, similarly, the blunder of 2006 began long before the shooting started, when Israel accepted, at the beginning of the new century, the growth of a cancerous Nasrallah abscess on its northern border. The blunder of putting up with the advancement of the Egyptian missiles in the 1970s and the blunder of putting up with the creation of the Hezbollah rocket deployment in the 21st century are remarkably similar. In both cases the weariness of Israel society prompted its leaders to ignore a clear danger because dealing with that danger would have entailed a major national effort. However, in both cases, in the final analysis, the national effort that was required to resolve the problem after it reached the critical stage was far greater than it would have been if the problem had been dealt with at the outset. The lesson is clear: In the Middle East the ostrich method does not work. Repression and denial have intolerable consequences. Therefore, the problem of the steep-trajectory weapons in the Gaza Strip must be solved today and not put off until the day after tomorrow. Therefore the problems entailed in a withdrawal from the West Bank must be solved before the withdrawal and not afterward. Even after the Nasrallah era, the challenge he posed to us remains intact. Without any doubt, Nasrallah was the great challenger of the Israeli spirit in this period. He knew Israel well and accurately identified its weak points. True, the sheikh was given to boasting and also made a mistake in his calculations when he initiated the July offensive, but he is gifted with a certain type of postmodern military genius that is capable of extracting the maximum impact from limited resources. The disciplined guerrilla army, hidden from the eye and using its own remote-control weapons, is the army of the future. By means of that army, Nasrallah directed a battle film that deserves to be studied. His thesis about Israel as a society of spider webs must be addressed. Seemingly, the events of the summer refute the spider-web thesis. As in 2002, the Israeli population demonstrated its resilience in 2006. The Israeli fighters demonstrated sophistication and resourcefulness. Israel emerged from the campaign with the upper hand. However, these achievements cannot blur the fact that at certain moments and in certain spheres Israel's weaknesses as a fighting democracy were revealed. The delay in launching the ground move stemmed from the fear of putting the ground forces to the test. The weeks in which Israel's citizens sat in shelters in order to protect the lives of Israel's soldiers attested to a fundamental anomaly. Throughout the Middle East, the impression was that the civil society in Israel is not mentally or morally prepared to take difficult but necessary military steps. The fact that in the end both the society and the army found in themselves an inner strength as in Operation Defensive Shield came as a surprise to Nasrallah and was his undoing. However, some of the question marks he raised still remain. The war of 2006 did not resemble the 1973 war in its intensity, its scale or in the human losses it caused. It did not endanger Israel's existence and did not inflict a disaster on the country. However, the 2006 war caused a severe blow to the home front such as we have not known since 1973. The war of 2006 left behind a series of additional precedents that are also worrisome. Precisely because the war was not waged against a sovereign state but against a sub-state organization, its implications could be serious. Accordingly, this war has to be seen as a kind of giant warning sign. In contrast to the Agranat Commission after the 1973 war, the Barak Commission after the war of 2006 does not see fit to take any measures against senior figures in the Israeli establishment. However, already at this early stage, before the full report is submitted to the government, the commission recommends that conclusions be drawn in the sphere of the political and strategic conception, which will prevent the recurrence of the pattern of unilateral withdrawal, will neutralize the threat of steep-trajectory weapons and will restore Israel's deterrent capability. Only thus will it be possible to ensure Israel's security and steadfastness in the long term.

A good news item

Jerusalem Post,July 23 2006
Lebanese woman treated in Israel
By JUDY SIEGEL-ITZKOVICH
A 47-year-old unidentified Lebanese woman was admitted to Ziv Hospital in Safed on Saturday afternoon as she was brought to the Israel-Lebanese border suffering from severe injuries from a high-velocity gunshot wound in the back. According to her son, who accompanied her to the border and to Ziv, they had been fleeing from the area of conflict. The wounded woman and her son are said to have be brought to an area near the northern border of Israel by a Lebanese physician and rescued under fire by Israel Defense Forces operating in southern Lebanon. The IDF transferred them to an ambulance that rushed to Safed, which itself has been under Hizbullah missile attack since the beginning of the war. Doctors in the trauma unit administered lifesaving procedures, according to hospital director Dr. Oscar Embon and deputy director Dr. Calin Shapira. She was found to have a large, deep wound across the right side of her back, contusions in the right lung and fractures in several ribs. She was hurried to the surgical theater for treatment of the wound and a closer examination of the injured area. Shapira said on Saturday night that she was in serious condition, attached to a respirator and under anesthesia. It was the first report of Israeli medical facilities treating any of the many Lebanese who have been wounded in the Israeli action in Lebanon.