Iran at the mike
By Danny Rubinstein
Ha'aretz, Thursday, August 31, 2006
Hassan Nasrallah's surprising speech Sunday will almost definitely save Prime Minister Ehud Olmert from a government probe. Defense Minister Amir Peretz and Chief of Staff Dan Halutz may also breathe a certain sigh of relief. Nasrallah's statements represented a severe blow to protest movements, already in the throes of a difficult lift-off. The explanation is simple: Dramatic statements voiced by Hezbollah's leader were summarized in two words in most Israeli, Palestinian and foreign media outlets: "Nasrallah regrets."
If Nasrallah is truly remorseful and is admitting he made a mistake, that is in practice an admission of failure - since war is generally a zero-sum game. If one side loses, the conclusion is the other side won. In other words, Olmert's government and the Israel Defense Forces, led by Halutz, come out of Nasrallah's speech looking not half bad.
If that is true, who needs a serious committee of inquiry? This may represent an internal Lebanese account, an attempt to repel criticism that Hezbollah caused the destruction of that nation. The Iranian leadership is also undoubtedly connected to Nasrallah's statements. In the startling, more than two-hour interview, there were several extraordinary declarations: First and foremost was the actual expression of regret and the admission that a mistake may have been made. Political leaders are not accustomed to making statements like that.
The granting of an interview surprised the correspondent summoned to Nasrallah's hiding place. Palestinian reporters wrote yesterday that this was the first time since the war began that Nasrallah had been interviewed by a Lebanese television channel not operated by Hezbollah. According to Palestinians, Nasrallah's statements did not reflect distress, but the opposite: The fact that he does not fear self-criticism is proof of his credibility.
One might ascribe Nasrallah's speech to Iranian involvement in South Lebanon and the extensive Hezbollah bunkers just discovered near Israel's northern border. "An underground city," Israeli spokesmen called the structures, which covered two square kilometers and included concrete columns, telephone lines and other facilities. All this, intended for use in an expanded, comprehensive campaign, was undoubtedly established with Iranian assistance.
The construction of a system of this type costs a fortune and demands expertise and means. Iran, which provided Hezbollah with 13,000 missiles and assisted in building the enormous bunkers, did not do this so that Hezbollah might abduct two soldiers to be traded for a handful of Lebanese prisoners held in Israel. Iran apparently had grander intentions, like the initiation of a war against Israel should the Americans - with or without Israeli assistance - attack Iran to thwart its development of nuclear weapons.
Against that background, some Iranians were angry with Hezbollah for permitting the war to expand for no reason. According to one Palestinian commentator, Iranian pressure prevented Nasrallah from using long-range Zelzal missiles capable of reaching "beyond, beyond Haifa," and as far as Tel Aviv. According to this theory, Nasrallah's relatively moderate statements were influenced by Iran to correspond with things said by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a speech two days ago. Iran is not a threat to anybody, "not even the Zionist regime that is the arch-enemy of all the peoples of the region," Ahmadinejad said in his speech.
Is Iran trying to buy time to continue to build its nuclear capability? This all remains an assumption. For now, it is clear that Nasrallah, influenced by Iran to one extent or another, helped Olmert, Peretz and Halutz ride waves of aspersion.
